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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.