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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."